Budgeting and getting your finances under control

I've been reading lately several books by Dave Ramsey.
What I've noticed is that if you have a budget you'll be able to get your finances under control and you will also be telling  your money where you want it to go and making it work for you.



So what is a budget?

As I understand it a budget consists of what you have to spend and then the allocations on what you want to spend it on.  Seems fairly simple right?   It basically is though many people including myself are not very good at doing a budget.

Now they mention that if you do a budget you will seem to have gotten a raise.  How could that happen?  Well it appears that as you preallocate your money you gain more control over said money.
You learn or set limits on what you want or are willing to spend your money on.  Then if you do the all cash purchase system you find you really do have more control of your money.

Budgeting works best with cash or check and not credit cards.  Why?  The tendency with a credit card is to purchase and forget about it.  You don't see the money leave your hand so you don't feel the potential pain right away.  So if you have $60 for food allocated that week and your working with cash you can't really buy $65 in food... you won't have the money at the check out.  Might now be the same if your using a credit card.  Now the Debit card acts like a credit card but, the money comes straight out of your account.  You can't go over unless you have overdraft protection.  Risk here is how that is handled.  A person here at works said she kept getting hit with a fee if she tried using her debit card with nothing in the account.  I would have run from that bank in a heart beat.  I had a bank charging a fee for not having enough movement on the account.  I was well above any typical minimum of $200-$500.  Got hit with the fee one to many times and then moved my money to a credit union.  Good old banks for you.


So what goes into a budget?  It is not simply tracking what you spend.  That is a start since you can see what you spend the most money on.  But, a budget is really much more then figuring out what you are spending your money on.
A budget is really telling your money where you want it to go.  A budget is figuring out your needs, want, and how much you have.  Then you decide where your money needs to go, how much you have left over and how much you can use now, how much you can save for a bigger purchase in the future etc.  Ultimately, if you plan right you will not over spend and can plan to pay cash for things.  You'll get stuck with little or no interest and that lack of interest coming out of your pocket will be the ultimate wealth builder.

So let us work on a sample budget.  The best idea is a zero sum budget.  That means that everything is allocated .... even savings or payments as savings for things like a car.

OK so let's get somethings down here and do a sample.  I'm going to keep things simple with this monthly budget.

Monthly Budget
Income	+$3,000
Rent	-$1300
Food	-$550
Utilities	-$150
Entertainment	-$75
Gas / Auto	-$150
Savings	-$675
Misc	-$100
Total Unallocated	0

As you see there is a specific line item for savings.  That can be actual money set aside for an emergency fund or you can line item it as if it was a car payment.   Then as you have built things up you can go and pay cash for the vehicle instead of financing.  Think of the savings over time.  Think of 4 years of payments at 5% interest.   Per bankrate.com and their calculator if the car is 15,000 you will have paid about $1,580 in interest.   That works out to be about $33 on your ~$345 monthly payment.  The idea here is that if you pay cash you can put more money back in your pocket.  It also requires that you make a wise choice on how much to spend on a vehicle.  Doubling the amount of the car to 30k gets you a double payment.  Thus ~3k in interest.  So the more you can pay up front the more you have in your pocket.  Think of the ability to pay cash for your car, and then save up what would be a car payment.  You have the car paid for in full by the time you need a new.  That is if you stay practical on how much you can afford.  Avoiding getting too much car and this principle works wonderfully.  check out the calculator here.

In a previous post I talked about a sink fund.
Pay Yourself First - some thoughts on personal finance
It's the same idea.  You pay yourself the amount you'd end up putting on your credit card.  Then you go and pay cash for the item.  Saving 15%-23% in interest.  You might think a few bucks in interest on a low cost item is nothing.  How about when you do that a few too many times?  The interest can start adding up.  I'm doing it currently for a Blu-ray player.  I'm putting aside $5 a week.  I'll have enough by the time Christmas comes around.  I'll also be able to take advantage of specials etc.


The bottom line is if you can tell your money where you want it to go you can come out ahead.  You'll actually appear to have more money because you stick to a budget and your defined limits.

So what are some of the recommended limits or percentages for a budget.
I found a reasonable chart from the Michigan credit counseling association
http://www.michigancounselingassociation.com/uploads/2/6/3/4/2634297/budget__financial_education.pdf
There definately is no hard can fast rule on all numbers.  For example housing is labeled as between 25-35%.  Food goes from 5-15%.  See a large variation in the values.  If one area is higher (housing is really expensive in California compared to Iowa) you then have to reduce another.  But, don't be such a nickle and dimer that you don't have any fun in the middle of everything.  You'll just have to find cheaper methods if you have a lot of debt your trying to get out of.   We use the library weekly for movies and more.  Pay only a few fines here and there...... saves on having Netflix, or cable.  Allows us to put that money to other categories.





I'd like to hear some of your budgeting ideas.  Things that work, things that have not, any ideas you have used to stay out of debt.
So the best thing I can say is get to work... and just do it.

Additional resources:
One for the Money
One for the Money - Low cost booklet on Finances
Dave Ramsey Budgeting forms
How to Budget - 50/20/30 Principle


Buaidh - NO - Bas

Plastic Bag Ban Revisited

I'd like to revisit the plastic bag ban.  I wrote about it in the past in my post
Plastic Bag Ban back in January of 2014.

We'll things definitely have changed.  Changed in a big way.  Several current members of the Huntington Beach City council got elected with the select purpose of repealing the bag ban.
And they did repeal the ban in Huntington Beach.


Here are a few of the articles out there on the subject

Huntington Beach City Council moves to repeal plastic bag ban
‘Surf City’ First in Nation to Repeal Plastic Bag Ban
Medzerian: Repeal of plastic bag ban is a step backward


All these article bring up many of the same arguments I mentioned in brought up previously.
Some argued the tax angle (10¢ for paper bag), others the fact the bag were being used multiple time (pick up dog poop, trash can liners), others the benefits of less in the ocean etc.

In reality you can find a way to make each and every one of these arguments work.
But, you have to way the advantages verses the disadvantages; the pros and cons.
It looks like the city of Huntington Beach through their elected representatives decided that the cons out weighed the pros when it comes to banning plastic bags.
I got that mostly the Mayor and council feel that choice was missing.  People were being forced and the benefits were slim on the long haul.  It's one thing to ban the bag and say "we are doing this for an environmental reason" but, to go and say and by the way you have to pay to use what we deem the "environmentally friendly option".
Think of that..... we banned lead in paint, and gasoline.  Did we got out and say you will not have to pay a fee or tax to use the new more environmentally friendly paint or gas?  We did not.  People took their lumps and did accepted the fact things had to change.  Not so with the plastic bags.
Too many arguments were available that refuted the "banners" claims.  Thus with flimsy proof, minimal scientific research and the like people just did not buy the need for a ban.




If the people that feel this ban is good for society they did not go about it in the right way.  They did not use a convincing enough argument to one side or the other.  They also decided or needed the "Tax" (pay for bag if you don't have one) as necessary to get the super markets on board.
Remember that only stores selling food had to abide  with the ban.  The local Home Depot or Joann craft store did not have to restrict the plastic bag.  So also it was fairly short sided.....
Pull part of the bags out of the system and expect things to get better.  It's like changing only the oil and not the transmission fluid.  You solve part of your maintenance needs but, not all.



If your going to effect a change you have to remove all the bag from the system.  Removing 20%-40% does not cut it.    I brought this up last time.  Cut, the bag and force people to by new ones.
Here is some of that shortsightedness.
"You’d think I’d asked readers to sacrifice their firstborn. The responses were varied but shared a similar tone, from folks who wondered how they were supposed to pick up their dog’s poop (uh, buy little poop bags?), to shoppers who went out of their way to avoid cities with a bag ban, to the general “you are an idiot.”
Medzerian: Repeal of plastic bag ban is a step backward

See what I means?   The Bags for dog poop don't go away we just have to pay for them now, instead of reusing the ones you had from the supermarket that brought home your groceries.  And how about the trash can liners?  You get forced to by the ones at the store that are in most cases thicker and will decompose slower at the land fill.   Do we win?



So I go back to my original premise.  Is the plastic bag ban really the way to fix the problem that is presented?  That we need to clean up the effects on the environment from all our modern living.

Unfortunately, I can not say that what has been presented and implemented is the solution.  I believe it is far from a good solution.  With some changes and such it might become a viable solution but, until then I can't go along with a Plastic Bag Ban in any city or the state of California.

Buiadh -  No - Bas

Pay Yourself First - some thoughts on personal finance

I'm getting towards the end of the book by Dave Ramsey entitled "Financial Peace Revisited".

In this he brings up the concept of "paying yourself" first.   The idea that you need to make sure you set aside something on a regular basis for yourself.  You have your regular bills and the like but, if you don't do something for you as a line item you will never get ahead.




The basic idea here is that if you can pay for things in cash and not credit (with the associated 10%+ interest rate) you come out ahead.  And how do you get to the point you can pay for things with CASH?
First you have to control you spending and have the patience to hold off on bigger purchases and  look for bargains and the like.  By saving up the money for the purchase over a few weeks or months you develop the ability to look for a bargain and have most if not all the money to pay up front.  That way you save all the interest charges.

So what does this have to do with "paying yourself" first?   If you develop in a budget a line item where you set something aside it's like your paying yourself.  You have become like the electric or gas bill.  You might not be able to do much in the short term if you are saddled with a lot of credit card debt.
By moving to a system where you pay with cash where possible (might not make sense on some larger purchases), you save so much in interest in the long run.

The basic idea is if you can wait say 8 weeks and save the money needed to purchase the $200 item instead of buy on credit you will save a lot of money in the long haul.  The difference can be $20-$30 over the 8 weeks.  If you finance your purchase and let's assume you don't pay it all off at the end of the month so you have a portion accruing interest @ 18% (a relatively common average).
so let's take that $200 purchase and only make a minimum payment of say $50 to keep things simple, the next month you have $150 to payoff and the 18% interest begins.  That works to about $14 in interest over several months if you just make minimum payments of say $15 each month.  It would be less for a minimum of say $40 or $50 getting it down to say $5 or $6 in interest.

Now for an amount like this you say $15 is not all that much.  If you are putting just about everything on the card the interest begins to build as you can afford to only make the minimum payment.
Remember the unfortunate part is that the interest you pay is on the interest as well....... bad in the long haul..... avoid it if at all possible.  I repeat avoid it at all possible.



Check out the chart below that navigates when it is good to use cash verses credit.  Per people like Dave Ramsey you should be cutting up your credit cards and going cash.  If you pay yourself first you won't need to use credit.....  most of the time.

Cash vs. Credit Info-Graphic Chart

http://www.businessinsider.com/credit-debit-or-cash-2014-9

Now if you plan ahead and have some emergency funds you'll be able to go towards cash only payments.  Pros and Cons of carrying cash - Dave Ramsey


There  is peace and security when you can do you payments in cash.  You will spend less, have more control over things and pay a heck of a lot less in interest.  Have you heard of the deals where they give you 90 days or 6 months same as cash?   They are banking on the fact you will not pay off the amount in the 90 days or 6 months.  The interest from day one then is piled on.
Recently had to have a bunch of dental work done.  Well over $1,000 in all.  Well they are offering 18 months same as cash.  So I have till October 2016 to pay off the amount.   Now on the bill they have a minimum payment of ~$43.  Factoring that out over the 18 months it comes to only $775.  See the deception?  Pay only the minimum and you come up far short.  So the new amount at the end of the 18 months includes the interest accrued from the beginning.  Hundreds of dollars just got added on to your total.  All at once since they don't have to have a minimum that will actually get you to the end of the promotional period with the total paid off.  Sly and tricky huh?

You can figure out interest payment by going to the following site by Bankrate.com
Interest payments - credit cards - BankRate.com

Bottom line I have to be careful and not get sucked into paying only the minimum.  So instead of the $43  I need to be paying the $73 to cover everything.

If you mess around with the numbers on the Bankrate page you can tell how much interest you will be paying over time.  It's not pretty really.  That is why you have to get into the habit of paying cash, controlling your spending, being patient, and "Paying yourself" such that you can take advantage of special deals, keep from paying interest, and have some funds in reserve.........

I got turned on to a system recently that is called a "Sink Fund".  It is kind of like paying for the item in question ahead of time and thus avoiding interest.  That said you might think that seems like something dumb on small purchases.  Make no sense to save up to buy that Foreman Grill on sale at Kohl's department store.  Maybe but, only if you have move set aside already.  Sink funds are for items you kind of want down the road and can plan for.  It might be the new dining room set, or the Blu-Ray player, Laptop, or Car.  You figure a rough amount you need to save and then figure out when you need said item.  That helps to figure your amount per week or month to save.

I for example want to have a new Blu-Ray player for Christmas.  I have about 30 weeks to go till then.  So if a typical Blu-Ray player is $120 dollars I'll need to save about $5 per week to meet my goal.  That is assuming I'll be buying it just at Christmas and not after or during the Black Friday frenzy.  Any way I will have to wait a little longer, but, with my current financial situation I save a ton in interest.  I'll also be able to search out bargains, and other deals till then.
We did something similar about a year ago with our TV purchase.  We did a lot of hunting, comparing and deciding.  Finally, the deal that worked the best was just after the new year at Walmart.  We though oh the deals around Black Friday will be good.  All off brands, or something way out of our price range.   These are simple habits, that help you to "pay yourself" first.




Consider a sink fund, or automatic saving account deposits.  I have some going to one of the "Online Banks" every month.  It automatically, and it is forcing me to save some money.  I hardly see or think of the amount since it is not so readily accessible.
You can do the same on your pay check.  Have some of the money be deposited in your savings verses your checking, heck you can have multiple accounts.  And how about your 401(k).
You should be having at least to the company match taken out.  That includes free money, and with time and average earning of say 4-12% you will be surprised how much you can grow the account to by the time you retire.  Even the few bucks 4% might constitute will create a large nest egg over 30-40 years.  That is "paying yourself"  so you are not eating Alpo in retirement.

 

Bottom line, if you want to get ahead you have to include yourself a your pay check allocations. Otherwise, you won't get anywhere and might just end up Bankrupt if your not careful.

Buiadh - NO - Bas

Bitcoin, Inflation, Deflation and Extraneous subjects

I've seen a couple of posts about Bitcoin recently and one that even made the Linkin Pulse.
This got me to thinking.  I could give my couple of cents worth of information and opinions on the subject and include deflation/inflation, money supply and the like too.

The article referenced above goes in to the idea of production and money supply.  It talks about how creating money that is pumped into the supply can effect things.  I naturally agree that when things become unbalanced you will have problems sooner then later.


We should all know about the simple principle of supply and demand from the economics classes we took back in high school or college.  It's on most required classes lists for general education. 

As the diagram shows as the demand for a product goes up the price has to go up if the supply does not match the increased demand.  Conversely, as the supply raises with little or no change in the demand the price is going to have to go down (this can be seen as dumping product; more on this later).

http://www.english-online.at/economy/capitalism/capitalism-market-economy.htm

Basically the price is effected by the amount of demand and supply.  The recent decline in gas prices can be seen as a good example of this in the real world.  The supply of gas/oil continued to increase while the demand for the product (gas/oil) stayed more or less flat.  With the glut on the market people begin to sell the product for less hoping to move their inventory quicker then the competition.  This can create a price war, much as what happens at an auction when 2 people get into a bidding war.

Now you might ask why did I title this "Bitcoin, Inflation, Deflation and Extraneous subjects" if I'm talking a lot about supply and demand.  It all plays together like one big merry-go-round.
You see nothing lives in a vacuum.  When the price of gas and oil plummeted in some peoples views their outlook on the economy was effected.  Also you have companies that have to decide if they can break even with the new prices going into effect.  A $10-$20 drop in the price of oil might not rise to many eyebrows if the price is $150 a barrel.  It sure turns heads if it is sitting around $50.


Planning, forecasting, and reality all help to influence the price over the long haul.  It appears that as the price of oil stayed well above $100 per barrel, lots of people found it economical to get into the oil business and pump more oil (especially alternative forms and sources).  This increases the supply, a natural reaction.  Sometimes, depending on the industry you may have a lag of several years or maybe just days for that supply to increase.  Agriculture is a prime example.  You can put more land under cultivation, however, you have at least a year to see any results.  Wheat is high so more is planted.  Some time next year you might see some increase.  Even longer if you have fruit trees that have to mature or live stock that have to reach adult size.  It's not an over night fix.  Little different with say water.  You likely have someone that can bring some in from out of area.  A day or two and your supply issue is effected.


Now we need to talk about modern economies and the money supply.  As of right now we pay for things in a couple of ways.  Most places will take some government backed paper money or coin.  Many places in the modern age will also take an electronic payment or check relating to a bank or credit card company.  Someone (financial institution) backs the transaction and they are backed by the government sponsored money on deposit.  In some areas around the world (usually rural) people may still be doing barter.  I'll give you my 12 eggs for say 9 cups of your wheat.  There is a recognized value of the one good being traded for the other.  People realize that a cow or pig has more value then a single egg due to the fact it takes more to produce one over the other.

We technically do the same thing every time we go to the store.  If you have the exact same T-shirt available at say Target, Wal-Mart and Macy's and each charges a different prices where will you buy that shirt?   If Wal-Mart is cheaper you'd go there, unless you want to brag about how much you paid even if it is $5 more for the exact same thing.  Some times the difference is not enough to make it worth our time to go out of our way for just one item.   We decide that the amount of money we spend is an acceptable value for what we are getting in return.  If we don't think the value is acceptable for what they want to charge we don't buy.  When we find out they are the only one in town with the item we need we then go pay the price or reevaluated if we need the item in the first place.  Though others might get into the market seeing a profit can be made and over time effect the supply.  As specified above the change maybe gradual or fairly quick.
Ever wonder why they have a clearance section?  It's a bunch of items that people did not have enough interest in at the price attached.  As the price is reduced more and more of the items are sold.  The consumer begins to see value at the new price.

Paper or Plastic? Understanding Money (audio presentation on money)

Now let us begin talking about the money supply.  Remember how I specified the Government backed  paper or coins.  Well what does that really mean.  If your using US Dollars you have a piece of paper with an attached value, and the government is the one that prints the money or mints the coins.  They have a recognized value by people around the world as having value per the good faith of the United States Government.  The same holds true for locations like Brazil.  The government is behind the real.  Those colorful notes in all shades of the rainbow.  They control the printing and destruction of old and new notes.  John Doe is not involved in determining the total amounts of notes in circulation and  the like.   For a period of time following the conversion of the Brazilian Cruzeiros Reais to the new Reais in the mid 1990's till around say 2005 each Real was backed by a US Dollar in the bank.  If they had 25 Billion in circulation they had $25 billion US in the bank.   This provided confidence in the money.  As of right now I don't think they have a 1 for 1 ratio of Dollars in the bank.
One way or the other the basis for most of the currency in the world today is in some form related to a government that is in charge of the creation of the money.  Changes in government can at times have a major effect on the money.  Very rarely is the money backed by anything more then good faith, let alone a commodity.
In the case of the Brazilian Real.  What would have happened in 1996 if the US government was overthrown by some right wing extremist or an Islamic backed group.   The full faith and trust of the government no longer applies.  Thus the value will decline in short order.  Some people will stop accepting the "Money" and things will begin to go into disarray.  This ripple throughout the world economy as various currencies are back by that of another admired or respected stable government.
Having an actual commodity backing the "Money" can help to retain perceived value.


In the past the most common method to back currency was Gold (or another precious metal).  Gold has had a fairly stable value over time and is perceived as safe.  However, it becomes hard to increase the money supply when you have to acquire some more gold to make more "Money".    Thus governments went on to create "Fiat Money".  This is money that derives it value from governmental intervention, law etc.   Thus it is not money that has a commodity backing it.  It is laissez faire money.... money that is just out there.  People assign their own value or worth to it.  It becomes just a common form of exchange.  Not something you can go to the government and ask for your 9 oz of oil in exchange.  They don't have a repository for exchange of that type; either at the local bank or governmental office.  This can over time allow the  government to manipulate the supply or quantity of money.  They can simple create money where none previously existed by printing more.
It's easy to see how the government by overzealous intervention or printing of money can turn the "Money" into "toilet paper money" as Nick Jones calls it in his article Fiat Currency: Using the Past to See into the Future.   Sometimes the government simply prints more money to help cover expenses.  This pumps money into the supply and then causes havoc in the long term.  More money with no increase in supply or demand throws things out of balance.  This tends to cause inflation.  So the governments task their treasury department that prints the money to help make sure they don't over load the money supply so much that inflation gets out of control while at the same time spurring on growth.
Few people that were not born before 1970 will remember the hyper inflation that occurred around the end of the 70's in the United States.  Things got really bad.
I was too small to remember the bad times here but, I saw things in Brazil where inflation was 300% or more per year before they changed over to the new currency.
When I first got there a 1.5 litter of Coca Cola cost 50 Cruzeiros Reais.  3 months later it was up to 150 for the same product.  Talk about inflation.  Unfortunately, some of that inflation was built in.  People just got accustom to increasing prices.  To counter this the conversion to the new money had a fixed rate that was broadcast for several month on the nightly news.  A new set of values was set in the mind of the consumer and common citizen.  We ran into a situation where a particular store was increasing the prices about 5% each week after the money conversion went into effect.  We gave him some time as we assumed they were working out the new appropriate level to price things.  However, after 1 month of consistent increases we stopped going there.  The price increases were no long justified.

That leads us to the notion that as inflation sets in things get bad but, what about deflation.
Is it such a bad thing to have prices go down.  Is it such a bad thing that the price of a gallon of milk goes down from $3.50 to say $3.00?  I guess in the long term this would not be such a good thing.
If a whole sample of items in the economy were to go down together it would be less likely to effect things as much.  Just the price of milk going down and everything going up is not good.  Over time a free market will correct itself by the laws and principles of supply and demand.
Invariably governments get worried with deflation, not sure exactly why, though if deflation is sustained I guess you could get the depression that occurred in the 1930's.  Eventually, this helped start World War II and all of the ramifications that came with it.  I'm not saying deflation causes wars but, I guess policy makers see it as a primer to the pump of an already aggravated situation.

The worse part is the way central banks try to correct deflation - "
In a deflationary environment, local demand for goods and services is weak, and prices fall with spending and consumption.
Buying government bonds increases the amount of money circulating in the region. By keeping interest rates low, the ECB hopes to encourage spending and borrowing, instead of saving. Many central banks across the world have also cut rates in the last few months."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/no-deflation-in-the-eurozone-or-g-20-countries-2015-3#ixzz3UCL6lL6a

Thus the solution is to mess with the money supply.  Instead of the market taking care of things and correcting as necessary.... the government or central bank does what they think best.  But, is it always the best?

So where does the Bitcoin revolution come in?  Imagine a form of currency that is not controlled by a central bank in some country.  A currency that can't be created Willy Nilly.  That the supplier does not or can not pump up the supply when ever they want.  It's like having to transact in gold nuggets.  Not some coin that over time might come to be just gold plated, but the actual pure product or commodity. 
Only problem is how do you transact with a person in Japan when dealing with something like gold nuggets.   Only due to the Internet and our now globally interconnectedness can something like Bitcoin work.  It's all digital.  Technically, it is all in cyber space.  They have no physical commodity at all.  The difference is the lack of supply or the control on the supply.   The capping of total supply. Now realistically, to get the whole world on bit coin would not work.  There is simply not enough in the supply to have that work all that well.  Physical commodities have their limits but, it is a local limit.  You have to exchange something for that wheat, or shirt and it is usually done in person.
So could bitcoin be the solution to inflation/deflation or at least the unintended manipulation of the money supply.  I am firmly of the belief that most of the trouble we get into is from to much or to little intervention from the government.  Take the recent housing bubble.  The government was promoting giving loans to just about anyone..... they kind of told the bank to make it happen any which way possible.  That lead to no verification of income, and other risky practices.  Basically, because the central bank backed the bad loans they kept on coming.  And what started the whole boom.... easy money after the dot com bust.  The central bank dropped the interest rate to next to nothing.    That helped grease the wheels of commerce.  Then as they saw things heating up a little to much they started to slowly raise the rate.  1/4 percent at a time.  The guys on adjustable rate mortgage began to die.  A little increase became painful and as this happened 1/4 percent per quarter or half percent per year the pain really set in.  Many who had been told oh just refinance every couple of years could not do so as easily.  So the sell motivator set in..... or in the long haul foreclosures as people attempted to survive paying at the new higher rate.

You see the consequences of messing with the money supply in the various ways the government does can be horrible.  They don't come along very quickly at times.  A year or two after  something is started the consequences show. Also think of the "to big to fail" problem with the banks.  The government say oh if these banks fail we are dust.  Even though you helped feed the problem (with our support) we will bail you out.
Do you think many of those bank would have stopped asking for income verification if they had to hold all the risky loans in the bag?  I am going to assume not.  NO bank wants to take a large gamble and those sub-prime loans became hot potatoes..... they just knew in the back of their minds that some of the hot potatoes would be handled by the government.....  so the risk was determined to be less the it really was.  No decided to put the breaks on the process...... keep the water flowing, and then the blockage in the line came.   All hell broke loose.
So in this case a true laissez faire situation would have helped to limit the issues.  I can't say for sure there would not have been a bit of a bubble or price run up if the banks all could have failed and no bail outs were in site.

You see the government made things a little too easy and greased the wheel with low interest rates, pumping of the supply and promotion of lack loan standards.  Several years later things over heated and blew up.  This type of things have happened in the past.  It's happening right now to some level.  Maybe not in the loan standards (some are jumping through ridiculous hoops).

One over reaction is followed by another over reaction in the other direction.  So if you can cut out the manipulation of the money supply by something like bitcoin.  Governments are concerned with things like bitcoin and other cyber or virtual currencies.
"No one knows what will become of bitcoin. It is mostly unregulated, but that could change. Governments are concerned about taxation and their lack of control over the currency."
What is Bitcoin? - CNN Money

That's the part I am worried about.  The lack of control the governments worry about is what might make bitcoins so wonderful.  It might promote things like money laundering and other illegal activities.  It does help cut out the "Middle-Man", the manipulators.  I'm not sure how much this will effect the over global economy in say 30 years.   Will this cause some revolution?  Hard to say.
It will cause people to look at their options and hopefully, cause governments to control more their "Fiat Currency".

Buiadh - NO - Bas

Enduring to the end

So yesterday we had a very good discussion on agency.  That lesson moved in enduring to the end.

I'd like to comment on this topic today.

You probably have heard the phrase - "Endure to the end".  This phrase is contained in at least a half dozen scriptures.

3 Nephi 15:9, 2 Nephi 31:16, D&C 14:7, D&C 18:22, Mark 13:13

to list just a few. 

The topic is all over the place and there is even an article from 1993 on the subject.

So what does this really mean?  What does enduring to the end really mean?

Per the guide to the scriptures:  To remain firm in a commitment to be true to the commandments of God despite temptation, opposition, and adversity.  

This phrase is usually tied to being saved, lifted up at the last days, receive the promise or  obtain eternal life.

The key element is the last one - Eternal Life.  We are promised that we can obtain eternal life if we hold out to the end while we are faithful to the commandments of God.

If ye shall press forward, feasting upon the word of Christ, and endure to the end, ye shall have eternal life:2 Ne. 31:20; ( 3 Ne. 15:9; D&C 14:7; )

Eternal life is the ability to live as Heavenly Father does.  It differs from Immortality in that you not only live forever, you also live in such a way that you are worthy to live in God's presence.
It is the greatest gift God can give us.  But, to be able to doe this we had to have someone intercede on our part.  All of us due to our mortal existence will fall short; Sin.  Thus since God can not look upon sin in the least degree we would never be able to return to be in his presence, no matter how good we are.   So that is where the Lord and Savior Jesus Christ comes into the picture.  He was willing and able to atone for our sins and make up the difference (Gap) that we will encounter at our day of Judgement.

The Plan of Happiness (Plan of Salvation) spells out what we must do to return to live in the presence of our Heavenly Father.   In this plan we learn that to obtain eternal life we need to have a physical body and be separated from the presence of GOD for a season.  During our mortal existence we will be given commands that we must follow, ordinances to fulfill, things to do that will then allow us to live in the presence of God upon our death.  This can be called living the Gospel of Jesus Christ.  The Gospel of Jesus Christ is the road map we need to follow to return to God's presence.

"We believe that the first principles and ordinances of the Gospel are: first, Faith in the Lord Jesus Christ; second, Repentance; third, Baptism by immersion for the remission of sins; fourth, Laying on of hands for the gift of the Holy Ghost." Article of Faith 4

So getting back to the "endure to the end".  We find we need to have faith and eventually be baptized and receive the Holy Ghost.  Does that mean that is all we need to do to obtain Eternal Life?
What exactly are we to endure?  How are we to endure?  These are valid and weighty questions.
For in reality it would be quiet disheartening to be employed by someone that never really gave you any instructions on what they expected yet, at the end of the day claimed you had not fulfilled your end of the bargain and 'FIRED' you for your short comings.   You see how this would seem very unfair and not very just.   If you get nailed for a traffic violation you might plead ignorance since yes the law might change on a regular basis and you simple did not get the up to date information.  Little different when your being held to a standard you had no way of knowing about in the first place.
Heavenly Father does not work that way.  He clearly laid out a plan and has made sure that the plan is known by the people down through time.  This plan is talked out in the ancient and modern scriptures.

"We believe all that God has revealed, all that He does now reveal, and we believe that He will yet reveal many great and important things pertaining to the Kingdom of God."  Article of Faith 9

Going back to the idea or concept of baptism.  It is labeled as  one of the "first principles and ordinances of the Gospel".  That means there must be more that will come afterwards.  There must be other things we must do in our "enduring" process. Oh there is a lot more to do.  We enter into covenants with God as we keep his commandments and fulfill the ordinances of the Gospel.
As we keep our end of the bargain we keep getting more blessings and opportunities provided by God to be more and more like him. 
Take the Temple and the ordinances we perform there - Endowment, Sealing etc.  There activities are further offerings on our part of our commitment to the Gospel of Jesus Christ.  But, is that all we need to do?  Is it enough to just be baptized and call it quits?  Is it enough to just get to the Temple once and call it quits? 
Some might say that it is but, they are taking the easy way out.  They are basically, saying that if you do it once you are good.  I say it would be hard to try that with your employment.   Who would want to keep someone that just shows up once and expects to get the full reward at the end of the day?
It would kind of be like the person that starts work and does not hang in their till the end of the day.
You will not give him his pay check because he has not earned it.  He has not held in there till the end and done all he can do to complete the job.  He has not earned his wage so to speak.


It is the same with enduring to the end.  Going to the Temple once is not enough, going to church only on occasion is not enough, doing anything just half way is not enough.

Now I know you might say hey what about the aged brother..... who can't get out and do much.  He might even be coming to church in a wheel chair, or has to use a cane or walker. Each unit in the church will have those people that due to physical, emotional or mental limitations can not participate the same as the rest.  You will need to make accommidations for those individuals.
They can still participate in some capacity.  They might be able to make phone calls or send letters.
They might not be the best choice for working in the nursery or helping to clean the building.  They might just be better suited to helping to hand out programs as a greeter or even put the program together.   The Lord is aware of the needs and limitations of all of his children.  He thus allows all the opportunity to serve and participate in the Church and take full advantage of the blessing offered by the Gospel.  We must not let our limitations no matter what they may be hold us back.  Not giving up  is part of what enduring to the end means.  It means we will strive till our dying breath to live up to our covenants we have made.  We will put forth our full and maximum efforts.






"Trials, deception, and iniquity—these are the enemies of endurance. Those who can bear the pain of trials, who can ignore alternate voices, whose loyalty can’t be bought with sin—these are they who will not betray their Master’s trust. They will faithfully maintain the charted course. They will endure."   Enduring to the End By Stephen E. Robinson




Buaidh no Bas

 

 

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?

What do the following movies Blade Runner, Wall.E, Bicentennial Man, A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) all have in common?

They all deal with Robots/Androids/Replicants  that have acquired to some degree or another human like characteristics.




The Wall.E trailer sums it up wonderfully

These glitches or flaws are the main topic in reality of the films.  At what point does a robot or android quit being a machine and become human?  Is it even possible?  Can a person go in the opposite direction?

Philip K Dick, the Sci-Fi writer, brings this topic up in a very complex way in his book entitled - Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?




Humanity and it's true definition is the main issue in the book.  The Bounty Hunter begins to question the necessity of terminating replicants that have come to earth from Mars.  They have become so complex that a sophisticated test has to administered in person to figure out the true identify of a person.  Though a built in fail safe helps to keep the problem to a minimum- androids only last 4 years or so.  The lead replicant spends the whole movie trying to track down his maker to fix the problem.

He brings up the topic of how human can an android be?  For that matter in much of his material he bring up the point of what defines humanity.  At what point can one be called human even though they may not be totally human?

These same topics are brought up in the movie Bicentennial Man based on material by Issac Asimov

They do take the movie to a whole new level.  At the time highly unrealistic.  Today not so much though still far fetched.  Upgrades that make him more and more real and human as time goes on.  The question becomes - Is this even possible?
Can we take a machine, a mechanical device and give it a protocol or programming that can make it appear human?  To be able to copy humans, in not just words or action but, deeds as well. 
In Blade Runner the have to put a set of memories into the replicants to make them appear  or function more human.  To repress some basic issue of aggression (not totally clear on that part).  Because of these planted memories it makes it much harder to tell them apart from a real human.  They do have a few tell tale signs - lack of emotion, and difficulty caring for an animal; especially animals that need daily care and emotional feedback.

Can we ever get to the point that our voice recognition applications on our smart phones begin to act like a true human, something along the lines of our wife, brother, cousins, or close friend?  Can it acquire the level of intelligence, emotion, empathy and other human characteristics that we can't tell the difference between how it is responding to that of our Room Mate?

For that matter is it possible to replicate human emotions, memories [nostalgia], and other reactions?
Can you really recreate the feels that come from a wonderful day at Disneyland as a child say in a robot?  Can you plant the memory there and have the same effect as one that lived through the event?  In Blade Runner one replicant  almost can feel or act human with her planted memories.  Eventually things break down a bit and she starts to have her doubts.

Now we can care this over into other things and not just humans.  Is it possible to replicate say a honey bee that would function, act and produce just like the real thing?  All those against GMO may cringe more then the typical person but, we may have the need to bring a "fake" bee to a field near you soon if Colony Collapse Disorder gets any worse.

Blade Runner Trailer

A.I. (artificial Intelligence) Trailer

Do we have the ability to replicate living organisms that though robotic carry out their function just as well as the real thing?  Do we even have the right?  That I think is the scary subject SCI-FI has been bringing up for some time.  The elephant in the room no one wants to deal with!

So as you sleep tonight will your sheep be the real things or just some electric version you acquired because the real thing is way to expensive?  Or maybe you really don't need to go to sleep........


Buiadh NO Bas

Revisiting the California Bag Ban

As some of you might have heard the state of California has passed a state wide BAN on plastic bags.
Yep, a ban on plastic bags.  Though just like the county or city specific ones it is full of holes.

I will go into details on this ban it do nothing but, kill jobs, and create more problems then it is designed to solve.  It appears the over zealous forgot to think about the consequences.

One of the biggest arguments for the bag ban is the fact that the bags take a very, very, very long time to decompose and they are filling up our limited land fill space.  They may also talk about the amount of plastic bags found among the trash on the street (more on that later).  Some times they will refer to the plastic found in our waterways and oceans.  In general the main arguments against the plastic bags seems logical. They seem something we all want.  However, how these things get implemented are where things go wrong.  This is where the reality gets all messed up with the back door dealing and the poor planning of how to carry things out.

trash on street including plastic bags

land fill full of plastic bags.

Typical scene of bags and other trash in the landfill or on the street.

Take a look at the logic used by Governor Brown as to why he supports the bag ban.
"Mr. Brown had signaled he would likely sign the bill earlier this month, during a debate with his Republican gubernatorial opponent, Neel Kashkari. Mr. Brown then called the ban a good "compromise" that clarifies a patchwork of prohibitions already in place in various jurisdictions across the state."   California Is First to Ban Plastic Bags Statewide - Wall Street Journal
You'll soon see how this flawed logic is used through out this bag ban.  Especially, since retailers have been able to calculate sales tax that varies all over the place for decades.  Just, saying you have to have something better then this to persuade people.

Back in the day there was an argument that the paper bags so common in the stores at the time were in reality killing the environment since they caused to many trees to be cut down.  The funny things is the paper bags are biodegradable more so then the plastic but, anyways people moved to the plastic bag.  Now they are complaining about them.

So over zealous environmentalist may have been the ones that started the use of the plastic bag.  However, it beginnings are not so important in the overall quest to have them banned or to remove the ban. At least in the minds of the people that want to have them banned.
(History repeating itself?)




What is most important is to refute the claims of why we need the ban.  To see past the bull of how the ban was or is going to be implemented and what some of the consequences can or will be of the ban.

So let us talk about the idea of too many plastic bag in the land fills.  There are plenty of pictures that show a load of plastic bags  in the land fills.  How many of those plastic bags in the picture are of the type you get at the store and more specifically those that are/will be banned?

I know that of those bags in the land fill you will find several types.  One type you might get at the store (reusable and recyclable), the typical larger black thick bags one uses for yard waste or to line full sized trash cans, and then the smaller though equal thicker bag for lining kitchen trash cans.

You see there are several types of plastic bags.  Some are thicker, some thinner.  Some of the bags are recyclable and others it's not so clear.  Some are big bags, others smaller.   There is not just one type of bag in the land fill.   So what type do we need to ban if we are to have any effect?

Basically you'd have to ban them all if you want to solve the so called problem being created by the plastic bag.  Why?  What good does it do to only restrict one type or a few?  If you still have any type of plastic bag heading to the land fill you solve very little.  I know the die hard environmentalists will say you have to start somewhere!  I agree, though you need to be consistent with what you implement.  Hard to claim on type is OK for the environment while another is not.


What do most people do with the bags they get at the store?  If they are like our family we use them to line our trash cans.  We then tie them up and throw them out to the bigger bins.  Some are also used to save a thing or two in the closet.  Keeps things from being dusty etc.

As we lose access to these simple bags we will need to find something else to line our trash cans, and store our stuff.  What will that likely be?  A plastic bag of the less recyclable type that is also thicker and less biodegradable.  Does this solve anything?  I'll spend more and potentially cause more harm to the environment in the long haul.

The bag you will be using now due to the ban

Now let us talk about the trash on the streets.   Some have said that if you have a trash and litter problem in your neighborhood like the picture shown above you have something that is a social issue and not because of the plastic bag.  Notice how the trash includes food containers that may be plastic or Styrofoam.  Maybe even a milk jug (plastic or cardboard), or food wrapper.  The plastic bag is only one of many trash items.  I even heard of complaints they get caught up in the wind and end up in trees.  Want to solve the trash issue?  Do something about deterring the litter problem in the first place.  Maybe fines or education.  That could be a whole other discussion by itself.
You don't have much problem with plastic bags and litter in the the ritzy neighborhoods.  Why?  Educated people that don't go through their trash in the street.

Yes some bags do get into the ocean and water ways.  I have no doubt about that.  There is a floating blob of plastic and other waste in the pacific ocean that definitely needs to be looked into.
We do need to do something to keep all this waste out of the water.  Again it goes back to education and other tactics.  Banning one of the things found in the ocean waste will not solve the problem all by itself.   Things like street sweeping will do more then bag bans  ...  I'll talk about that more later.

trash effecting sea life

So we see that banning bags is only a potentially partial fix.  There are loads of other waste that also needs to be dealt with to solve the problem.

Now let's talk about some of the issues with how the bag ban will be implemented.

First the bag ban only applies to locations that sell food items.  So that means your grocery stores, and places like Walmart and Target (that have a major food section).  It does not include locations like Kohl's, Home Depot, Michael's, Joanns, TJ Maxx and the like.  They don't sell food or at least the kinds or quantities that would fall under this ban.  Also the plastic bag you put your produce or meat  into, the clear ones, are not covered.  So we are extremely selective on the types, and locations associated with the ban.

"But even when the law blankets every store, it will not mean the end of plastic bags. Consumers can still swaddle their fruits and vegetables in plastic or use bags to shield leaky meat."  California plastic bag ban signed, setting off sweeping changes - Sacramento Bee

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/09/30/6748372/california-plastic-bag-ban-signed.html#storylink=cpy

"Under SB270, plastic bags will be phased out of checkout counters at large grocery stores and supermarkets such as Wal-Mart and Target starting next summer, and convenience stores and pharmacies in 2016. The law does not apply to bags used for fruits, vegetables or meats, or to shopping bags used at other retailers. It allows grocers to charge a fee of at least 10 cents for using paper bags."  California Becomes First State To Ban Single-Use Plastic Bags - Huffington Post


Yes the grocery stores provide the bulk of the plastic bags in question but, they are not the only ones.
And then on top of that if you don't have your own bag they will be able to charge you a bag tax of 10¢ to acquire something to take your food home in.  Many time these are either paper or thicker "reusable" plastic bags.  So you have many of the same issues previously mentioned above come into play.

The reason I call it a bag tax is as follows.
1) Previously the bag were given out for free, now the store can charge for the bag.
2) It penalizes people for not bringing there own bags. (so called reeducation)
3) The money is mostly going to be used to cover the cost of the replacement bag.  Even if it was used for environmental clean-up it would still be a tax or wealth redistribution.

"Lawmakers of both parties who opposed SB270 said it would penalize lower-income residents by charging them for bags they once received for free. The bill was amended to waive fees for customers who are on public assistance and limit how grocers can spend the proceeds from the fees" California Becomes First State To Ban Single-Use Plastic Bags - Huffington Post

 "Opposition came from other quarters. Critics representing paper and plastic bag businesses denounced the minimum 10 cent fee as an unjustified sweetener included to buy the backing of grocery stores."
"You have to follow the money,” Assemblyman Scott Wilk, R-Santa Clarita, said during debate on the Assembly floor. “What I see this becoming is another funding source for the grocery store industry. It’s just another way of taking a shot at the little guy.”

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/09/30/6748372/california-plastic-bag-ban-signed.html#storylink=cpy

 California plastic bag ban signed, setting off sweeping changes - Sacramento Bee

Remember that previously the grocery store had to supply a bag (plastic or paper) free of charge.
Now they charge you for more or less the same thing they gave away before.  NO wonder there was little or no opposition from the grocery stores.

So as a a review. 

• Not all types of plastic bags are going to be banned.
• Not all locations are required to provide an alternate bag (i.e. some stores will still provide a plastic bag).
• You'll have to pay if you don't bring your own bag.
• The money from the purchase of an alternate bag is not going to environmental clean-up.
•  Jobs will likely be lost as bag manufacturers reduce output.
• Plenty of bag will still end up in the environment or landfill; especially more of the less biodegradable type.

And there are a couple of other side effects that are starting to crop up as well.
The reusable bag you bring from home is make in such a way that it may likely absorb meat and/or fruit/vegetable juices.  No big deal you say.  Might have pesticides, salmonella, or other dangerous bacteria.  We definitely don't need to get ourselves sick because we forgot to wash our bag.
And washing that bag properly does not help save the environment if you do it right.  I'm not going to wash those bags with my underwear.  I don't need the associated hassles.
It's a trade off in the end.  Like the plug in vehicles.  You get the energy from one location or another.... the question is which is cleaner, better, safer, etc.

Another issue with anecdotal evidence is shoplifting.  How the heck does shoplifting have anything to do with the plastic bag ban?
  You see as people reject getting a purchased bag at the cashier they simply carry their goods out by hand or place them all back in the cart and head out to the parking lot.   Do you begin to see the problem?  How will security or other store personnel verify each and every person and the good they bought.  It's hard enough for the loss prevention people already so this just creates some potential confusion.  You might also find you have to have additional persons out in the parking lot gathering up carts.   If everyone begins to reload their cart and head out you will end up with more in the lot.  Before if the purchase amounted to just a few items in one or two bags they might leave the cart at the door.  Nor they guys takes his loose fruit, cans, and other stuff with him in the cart.  Or he might even decide to ask for help out to his car.   You just wasted a bunch of man power over a lousy 4¢ plastic bag.   Good luck on this one!!!!


So it is easy to see that this thing was not very well thought out.  It's more of a head ache then a benefit the way they decided to implement it.

I just wish they would put the same amount of energy in to find a better way to keep the waterways clear.....  oh wait that might require a bit of thinking.  Something it appears the state of California Legislator and Governor don't want to do to much of.

Buaidh - NO - Bas

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2014/09/30/6748372/california-plastic-bag-ban-signed.html#storylink=cpy